blank'/> THE PUCK REPORT: March 2011

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 10 Games To Play

With 72 games banked and 10 to play, the NHL playoff picture is all but set. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.
























































































































































































































































































































Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 72 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. PHI
44
97
1.35
1. VAN
47
103
1.43
2. WAS
41
92
1.27
2. DET
43
94
1.30
3. BOS
40
90
1.25
3. SJS
41
90
1.25
4. PIT
41
90
1.25
4. PHO
38
87
1.21
5. TBL
39
89
1.24
5. LAK
40
86
1.19
6. MTL
39
85
1.18
6. CHI
39
86
1.19
7. NYR
38
80
1.11
7. ANA
40
85
1.18
8. BUF
35
79
1.10
8. DAL
38
85
1.18
9. CAR
33
76
1.05
9. NAS
37
84
1.17
10. NJD
34
72
1.00
10. CGY
36
81
1.12
11. TOR
31
72
1.00
11. MIN
35
78
1.08
12. ATL
30
72
1.00
12. CLB
33
76
1.05
13. FLA
29
68
0.94
13. STL
32
73
1.01
14. NYI
27
66
0.92
14. COL
28
64
0.89
15. OTT
27
63
0.87
15. EDM
23
56
0.78



If teams maintain their 72 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 90 (East) and 97 (West), a two point uptick from last year's 88 and 95. Substituting the 72 game pace for that of the past 10 games yields the same participants albeit with some variations in seeding, as shown below.

























































































































































































































































































































Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 10 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. WAS
50
110
1.34
1. VAN
55
119
1.45
2. PHI
48
108
1.32
2. DET
48
106
1.29
3. BOS
44
101
1.23
3. SJS
47
104
1.27
4. PIT
46
102
1.24
4. ANA
48
101
1.23
5. MTL
46
99
1.21
5. CHI
45
101
1.23
6. TBL
41
96
1.17
6. LAK
45
98
1.19
7. NYR
44
92
1.12
7. PHO
43
98
1.19
8. BUF
40
91
1.11
8. DAL
43
98
1.19
9. NJD
41
86
1.05
9. NAS
43
98
1.19
10. CAR
37
85
1.04
10. CGY
43
92
1.12
11. ATL
35
83
1.01
11. MIN
37
86
1.05
12. TOR
35
82
1.00
12. CLB
35
83
1.01
13. NYI
31
78
0.95
13. STL
36
81
0.99
14. FLA
32
77
0.94
14. COL
30
69
0.84
15. OTT
33
75
0.91
15. EDM
26
64
0.78



The 10 game pace projections have Washington overtaking Philadelphia for the East's top spot while Montreal and Tampa Bay swap 5th and 6th seeds. In the West, 4th through 7th finishers are shuffled with Anaheim stealing home ice from Phoenix, leaving four teams tied with 98 points and putting the new NHL tiebreaker system to the test.


Sadly, New Jersey's miraculous second half run appears to have missed the mark. Now a Buffalo or New York collapse must accompany their pursuit of uninterrupted wins to end the regular season.

Long have you run.

Friday, March 4, 2011

2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 20 Games To Play

With 62 games banked and 20 to play, the NHL playoff picture is taking shape. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.
























































































































































































































































































































Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 62 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. PHI
40
86
1.39
1. VAN
39
87
1.40
2. TBL
37
81
1.31
2. DET
38
82
1.32
3. BOS
36
79
1.27
3. SJS
35
76
1.22
4. PIT
36
78
1.26
4. PHO
33
75
1.21
5. WAS
32
74
1.19
5. LAK
35
74
1.19
6. MTL
32
71
1.14
6. MIN
33
72
1.16
7. NYR
32
68
1.10
7. CHI
33
72
1.16
8. BUF
30
67
1.08
8. DAL
33
72
1.16
9. CAR
29
67
1.08
9. NAS
31
70
1.13
10. TOR
27
62
1.00
10. CGY
31
70
1.13
11. ATL
25
61
0.98
11. ANA
32
69
1.11
12. FLA
26
59
0.95
12. CLB
31
69
1.11
13. NJD
27
58
0.93
13. STL
28
65
1.05
14. NYI
23
54
0.87
14. COL
26
59
0.95
15. OTT
21
51
0.82
15. EDM
20
48
0.77



If teams maintain their 62 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 89 (East) and 95 (West), nearly identical to last year's 88 and 95. An uptick in production, however, is needed for outliers to salvage their season.



















































































































































Points Needed In Final 20 Games



EAST

WEST
Team
Pts
Pace
Team
Pts
Pace
9. CAR
22
1.10
9. NAS
25
1.25
10. TOR
27
1.35
10. CGY
25
1.25
11. ATL
28
1.40
11. ANA
26
1.30
12. FLA
30
1.50
12. CLB
26
1.30
13. NJD
31
1.55
13. STL
30
1.50
14. NYI
35
1.75
14. COL
36
1.80
15. OTT
38
1.90
15. EDM
47
2.35


While most have enjoyed relatively consistent production throughout the season, some have deviated drastically during the past 21 games. Most notably, the New Jersey Devils posted a 0.54 pace during the front 41, a marker they've more than tripled during the 21 games since.



































































































































































































































































Points Collected In Past 21 Games



EAST

WEST
Team
Pts
Pace
Team
Pts
Pace
NJD
36
1.71
CGY
31
1.48
PHI
29
1.38
SJS
29
1.38
TBL
28
1.33
PHO
28
1.33
BOS
27
1.28
VAN
27
1.28
BUF
26
1.24
LAK
27
1.28
MTL
24
1.14
CHI
27
1.28
TOR
24
1.14
CLB
26
1.24
PIT
23
1.09
DET
25
1.19
CAR
22
1.05
ANA
25
1.19
WAS
22
1.05
MIN
25
1.19
NYI
21
1.00
DAL
20
0.95
NYR
19
0.90
NAS
20
0.95
FLA
19
0.90
STL
19
0.90
ATL
15
0.71
EDM
15
0.71
OTT
13
0.62
COL
12
0.57



Understanding that past behavior is a strong indicator of future performance, the question is how far back do we look to predict the future. The chart below posits final standings extrapolating the points pace for the past 21 games over the remainder of the regular season.
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Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 21 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. PHI
53
114
1.38
1. VAN
50
113
1.28
2. TBL
49
108
1.33
2. DET
49
106
1.19
3. BOS
49
105
1.28
3. SJS
48
104
1.38
4. PIT
45
100
1.09
4. PHO
46
102
1.33
5. WAS
40
95
1.04
5. LAK
46
100
1.28
6. MTL
41
94
1.14
6. CGY
43
100
1.48
7. NJD
43
92
1.71
7. CHI
44
98
1.28
8. BUF
39
92
1.24
8. MIN
43
96
1.19
9. CAR
37
88
1.05
9. CLB
41
94
1.24
10. NYR
40
86
1.00
10. ANA
43
93
1.19
11. TOR
36
85
1.14
11. DAL
41
91
0.95
12. FLA
32
77
0.90
12. NAS
39
89
0.95
13. ATL
29
75
0.71
13. STL
36
83
0.90
14. NYI
32
74
0.90
14. COL
30
70
0.71
15. OTT
25
63
0.62
15. EDM
26
62
0.57



Interestingly, the two measures yield identical placements for the top five on each side. The 21 game pace, however, has the New Jersey Devils beating out the New York Rangers and the Calgary Flames displacing the Dallas Stars. Time will tell which pace prevails over the final 20 games.