On April 20th in 1984, divisional rivals Montreal Canadiens and Quebec Nordiques engaged in a now famous fight known simply by its calendar namesake emanating from the perfect storm of NHL playoffs, politics and provincial pride.
The Good Friday Brawl fisticuffs ensued at the end of the second period of Game 6 of the Adams Division Finals and lasted for ten minutes before teams retreated to their respective dressing rooms. Upon surveying the damage to teammate Jean Hamel from a Louis Sleigher sucker punch, the Canadiens returned to settle the score in the final frame.
Montreal beat Quebec that night to seal the series by a margin of 4-2.
That's today in NHL history.
Sunday, April 20, 2025
Today In NHL History - Good Friday Brawl
Posted by MG at 12:01 AM 1 comments
Labels: Fighting, Playoffs, Realignment, Relocation, Standings, Today In NHL History, Tradition, Video Clip
Sunday, March 30, 2025
Today In NHL History - Getzlaf Gloves Flames Goal
On March 30th in 2011, Anaheim Ducks forward Ryan Getzlaf tricked referee Gord Dwyer and the off-ice video review crew when he grabbed a puck that had clearly crossed the goal line and was resting on netminder Ray Emery's arm, and inconspicuously placed it in the crease after the whistle preventing Calgary's tying goal.
For his encore, Getzlaf denied allegations relating to his suspect role in the incident during a second period intermission television interview.
Needless to say, the Flames were none too pleased with the officials' oversight and didn't hesitate to share their thoughts after the game.
The controversial call crushed Calgary's playoff hopes as Anaheim scored shortly thereafter and eventually won by a score of 4-2, preventing the Flames from pulling within a point of the final playoff spot with four games to play. Calgary ultimately missed the playoffs by three points.
That's today in NHL history.
Posted by MG at 12:02 AM 0 comments
Labels: Disallowed Goal, Playoffs, Standings, Today In NHL History, Video Clip, Video Review
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-1
Eight teams took a 3-1 series lead in their best-of-seven series in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Seven teams advanced (Carolina [2], Florida, Toronto, Vegas [3]) and one went home (Boston). While a 3-1 lead is always a good thing, it's never a sure thing.
Through 2023, teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series 333 times. Only 32 times has the trailing team comeback to win the series. Put another way, the team with a 3-1 series lead wins 90% of the time with the down-and-nearly-out team recovering only 10% of the time.
The chart below describes all 32 comebacks by year, team and round.
Year
Matchup
Round
1942
Toronto over Detroit
Final
1975
New York* over Pittsburgh
Preliminary
1987
New York* over Washington
Preliminary
Detroit over Toronto
Quarterfinal
1988
Washington over Philadelphia
Quarterfinal
1989
Los Angeles over Edmonton
Preliminary
1990
Edmonton over Winnipeg
Preliminary
1991
St. Louis over Detroit
Preliminary
1992
Detroit over Minnesota^
Preliminary
Vancouver over Winnipeg
Preliminary
Pittsburgh over Washington
Preliminary
1994
Vancouver over Calgary
Preliminary
1995
Pittsburgh over Washington
Preliminary
1998
Edmonton over Colorado
Preliminary
1999
St. Louis over Phoenix
Preliminary
2000
New Jersey over Philadelphia
Semifinal
2003
Minnesota^^ over Colorado
Preliminary
Vancouver over St. Louis
Preliminary
Minnesota^^ over Vancouver
Quarterfinal
2004
Montreal over Boston
Preliminary
2009
Washington over New York**
Preliminary
2010
Montreal over Washington
Preliminary
Philadelphia over Boston
Quarterfinal
2011
Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh
Preliminary
2013
Chicago over Detroit
Quarterfinal
2014
Los Angeles over San Jose
Preliminary
New York** over Pittsburgh
Quarterfinal
2015
New York** over Washington
Quarterfinal
2019
San Jose over Vegas
Preliminary
2021
Montreal over Toronto
Preliminary
2022
New York** over Pittsburgh
Preliminary
2023
Florida over Boston
Preliminary
* New York Islanders
** New York Rangers
^ Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild
In the 36 seasons since all playoff rounds were expanded to best-of-seven series in 1987, 30 teams have comeback from a 3-1 deficit to win their series. In the 18 postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, however, only 12 teams (Washington 2009, Montreal 2010, Philadelphia 2010, Tampa Bay 2011, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014, New York 2014, New York 2015, San Jose 2019, Montreal 2021, New York 2022, Florida 2023) have turned the trick.
Breaking it down by round, such comebacks have happened only once in the Stanley Cup Final (Toronto 1942) and Semifinal (New Jersey 2000), and 7 times in the Quarterfinal (Detroit 1987, Washington 1988, Minnesota 2003, Philadelphia 2010, Chicago 2013, New York 2014, New York 2015), with the remaining 23 comebacks occurring during the Preliminary round.
Of the 32 teams that completed the comeback, six won the Stanley Cup (Toronto 1942, Edmonton 1990, Pittsburgh 1992, New Jersey 2000, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014) and five more made it to the Final but failed to hoist the hardware (Vancouver 1994, Philadelphia 2010, New York 2014, Montreal 2021, Florida 2023).
Only one team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit twice in the same playoff (Minnesota 2003). Similarly, only one team has ever comeback down 3-1 and blown a 3-1 lead in the same postseason (Vancouver 2003).
The chart below lists all teams involved in such 3-1 series comebacks, showing the total number of series involving such circumstances and their overall win/loss record.
Team | Series | Record |
Washington |
7
|
2-5
|
Pittsburgh | 6
|
2-4
|
Detroit |
5
|
2-3
|
New York** |
4
|
3-1
|
Vancouver | 4
|
3-1
|
Montreal |
3
|
3-0
|
Edmonton |
3
|
2-1
|
St. Louis |
3
|
2-1
|
Philadelphia | 3
|
1-2
|
Toronto | 3
|
1-2
|
Boston | 3
|
0-3
|
Los Angeles |
2
|
2-0
|
Minnesota^^ |
2
|
2-0
|
New York* |
2
|
2-0
|
San Jose | 2
|
1-1
|
Colorado |
2
|
0-2
|
Winnipeg | 2
|
0-2
|
Chicago |
1
|
1-0
|
Florida |
1
|
1-0
|
New Jersey |
1
|
1-0
|
Tampa Bay |
1
|
1-0
|
Arizona |
1
|
0-1
|
Calgary |
1
|
0-1
|
Minnesota^ |
1
|
0-1
|
Vegas |
1
|
0-1
|
* New York Islanders
** New York Rangers
^ Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild
Only Anaheim, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Nashville, Ottawa, Seattle and Winnipeg (formerly the Atlanta Thrashers) have never comeback from a 3-1 series deficit or blown a 3-1 series lead. Montreal, Vancouver and the New York Rangers lead all teams in comebacks trailing a series 3-1 with three series wins. Conversely, Washington has blown more 3-1 series leads than any other team, squandering five such series.
It's worth noting that in the 18 postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, 16 teams have squandered a 3-1 series lead only to stave off elimination by winning Game 7. They are Carolina (2006, 2009), Vancouver (2007, 2011), Montreal (2008), Philadelphia (2008), San Jose (2011), Boston (2013, 2018), Los Angeles (2014), St. Louis (2016), Pittsburgh (2017), Dallas (2020), New York Islanders (2020) and Vegas (2020, 2021). Eight of these games were decided by one goal and six in overtime. In sum, with a 10% chance of recovery for teams trailing their series 3-1, it's statistically likely their season will soon end.
* See also NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-0.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Game 7 History.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff First Round Upsets.
Posted by MG at 12:03 AM 0 comments
Labels: Music, Playoffs, Projections, Standings, Statistical Anomaly, Video Clip
NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-0
Three teams found themselves in a 3-0 series deficit in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Toronto, Carolina, Dallas). None survived. History tells us they had a 1 in 50 chance of completing the comeback, despite two teams overcoming such odds in the past twelve.
Through 2023, only 4 times in 204 tries (2%) has a team comeback to win a series trailing 3-0 in the playoffs. The Toronto Maple Leafs were the first to turn the trick, doing so in the 1942 Stanley Cup Final against the Detroit Red Wings. The New York Islanders followed suit 33 years later, during their franchise first playoff run, uncharacteristically catching the Pittsburgh Penguins during the 1975 Quarterfinals.
The Philadelphia Flyers were the third such club 35 years after that, beating the Boston Bruins in the 2010 Eastern Conference Final. Most recently, the Los Angeles Kings became the fourth squad when they upset the San Jose Sharks in the 2014 Western Conference Quarterfinals.
Breaking it down by playoff round, teams have held a 3-0 lead 57 times in the Preliminary round, 69 times in the Quarterfinals, 49 times in the Semifinal, and 29 times in the Stanley Cup Final. In 125 of 204 times (61%), leading teams finished off the series in Game 4. Of the 79 teams that have survived the sweep, only 9 (11%) lived to skate in a Game 7.
Once in Game 7, the aforementioned four clubs completed the improbable comeback (44%) while the 3-0 series leaders won the remaining 5 times (56%). Of these 9 Game 7s, 6 were decided by one goal, 5 were won by the home team, and 2 were decided in overtime. Teams to lead a series 3-0 and eventually win in Game 7 include the Bruins (1939), Leafs (1945), Flyers (1975), Sharks (2011) and Canucks (2011).
Time will tell if any other teams can replicate the gargantuan task of winning four straight postseason games while facing elimination and join this historic list of clutch playoff performances. Rare air to be sure.
* See also NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-1.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Game 7 History.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff First Round Upsets.
Posted by MG at 12:02 AM 0 comments
Labels: Playoffs, Projections, Standings, Statistical Anomaly, Video Clip
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
NHL Tiebreaker Rules and Playoff Seeding
NHL realignment and recent revisions to the tie-breaker system, discounting the value of a shootout win in determining regular season standings, have altered tiebreaker rules and playoff seeding.
First off, the top three teams in each division automatically qualify for the postseason with two wildcard spots being awarded to the next highest ranked teams in each conference. And yes, it is possible for both wildcard berths in a conference to come from the same division, meaning one division sends five teams to the playoffs while the other sends only three.
Total regular season points rules the day in ordering the top three teams in each division as well as wildcard winners. The division winner with the most points is then matched against the wildcard team with the fewest points in the conference, leaving the other division winner to play the remaining wildcard team, while the second and third place finishers in each division battle in the opening round of the playoffs.
If teams collect the same number of points, the one with more regulation and overtime wins (statistically abbreviated as ROW) jumps ahead in the standings. Shootout wins DO NOT COUNT for tiebreaker purposes.
If teams share the same number of points and wins (i.e., regulation + overtime wins, excluding shootout wins), then the club with more points in their head-to-head season series prevails. If an odd number of games occurred between the teams, points collected in the first game in the city hosting an extra match will be discounted in the math.
If teams remain tied after calculating points, wins (i.e., regulation + overtime wins, excluding shootout wins), and their head-to-head season series, then the team with the greatest positive difference between goals scored (GF) and goals allowed (GA) gets the nod.
In the unlikely event two teams remain tied in all of these categories at the end of the regular season, a tiebreaker game will be played. Home ice will be determined by a draw and playoff overtime rules will be in effect (i.e., 5-on-5, sudden death, 20 minute periods). Never before has such a game been played, though Montreal and Buffalo came close in 2000.
Points, ROW, head-to-head season series, GF minus GA, tiebreaker game. Now you know.
* See also NHL Playoff Seeding and Re-seeding Rules.
Posted by MG at 12:01 AM 2 comments
Labels: Playoffs, Rules, Schedule, Standings, Statistical Anomaly
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
NHL Playoff Seeding And Re-Seeding Rules
With the opening round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs in the books, the list of Stanley Cup suitors has officially been halved from sixteen teams to a remaining eight. The next question is who plays who in the next round, and why.
The NHL relies on reseeding to pair opponents beyond the postseason's preliminary round. This process sets top teams in each of the four divisions against wildcard recipients and matches second and third place finishers in their respective division against each other. The survivorwinner of the these two series will play each other in the second round, with winners from each of the four divisional brackets battle in their respective Conference Final, with victors skating in the Stanley Cup Final.
Home ice advantage in each best-of-seven series belongs to the team with the most regular season points. When teams have the same number of regular season points, tiebreaker rules are employed.
The beauty of reseeding is it rewards regular season strength amongst divisional teams. Underdogs never shed their skin, forced to play through higher finishing teams to advance, whereas top dogs always enjoy an extra game at home.
Unfortunately, the current reseeding system disadvantages divisions with strong teams, forcing them to play each other when weaker teams reside elsewhere in the conference. As an example, the top three teams in the Metropolitan Division finished the regular season 1st, 2nd and 4th overall in the NHL. Yet, the 2nd and 4th regular season finishers (Pittsburgh & Columbus) played in the opening round and the 1st and 2nd overall finishers are meeting in the second round (Washington & Pittsburgh). Meanwhile, the Atlantic Division's second round matchup features the 9th and 12th best regular season teams (New York Rangers & Ottawa).
So yes, the regular season does count for something but the current playoff format doesn't necessarily yield the easiest path for top finishers.
* See also NHL Tiebreaker Rules and Playoff Seeding.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
NHL Playoff Seeding and Stanley Cup Wins
Tweaks to the playoff seeding system prior to the 1994 regular season awarded division winners with the top three spots in each conference, saving the final five positions for the next highest finishing teams. In the 21 seasons since, a division champion has made it to the Stanley Cup Finals every year but three (2012, 2014, 2015), winning 15 of 21 times.
Realignment before the 2014 regular season reduced the number of divisions in each conference (from three to two) and introduced a revised playoff structure with teams playing through their division (with possible wildcard exceptions). For the purposes of this post we'll continue to ascribe conference standings to team seeding to test the importance of regular season finish on postseason performance, despite different playoff matchup methodology.
The chart below describes Cup Finals since 1994 by seeding and outcome.
Year | Stanley Cup Final Matchup |
2015 | (4) Chicago over (3) Tampa Bay |
2014 | (6) Los Angeles over (5) New York* |
2013 | (1) Chicago over (4) Boston |
2012 | (8) Los Angeles over (6) New Jersey |
2011 | (3) Boston over (1) Vancouver |
2010 | (2) Chicago over (7) Philadelphia |
2009 | (4) Pittsburgh over (2) Detroit |
2008 | (1) Detroit over (2) Pittsburgh |
2007 | (2) Anaheim over (4) Ottawa |
2006 | (2) Carolina over (8) Edmonton |
2004 | (1) Tampa Bay over (6) Calgary |
2003 | (2) New Jersey over (7) Anaheim |
2002 | (1) Detroit over (3) Carolina |
2001 | (1) Colorado over (1) New Jersey |
2000 | (4) New Jersey over (2) Dallas |
1999 | (1) Dallas over (7) Buffalo |
1998 | (2) Detroit over (4) Washington |
1997 | (3) Detroit over (2) Philadelphia |
1996 | (2) Colorado over (4) Florida |
1995 | (5) New Jersey over (1) Detroit |
1994 | (1) New York* over (7) Vancouver |
* New York Rangers
The only non-division winners to hoist the Cup since the new seeding scenario are New Jersey (5th seed in 1995, 4th seed in 2000), Pittsburgh (4th seed in 2009), Los Angeles (8th seed in 2012, 6th seed in 2014) and Chicago (4th seed in 2015). Interestingly, New Jersey and Pittsburgh both fell short as division champions in the Stanley Cup Final (NJD 2001, PIT 2008), yet won as wildcards.
The Presidents' Trophy winner made the Stanley Cup Final eight times during this span (NYR 1994, DET 1995, DAL 1999, COL 2001, DET 2002, DET 2008, VAN 2011, CHI 2013), claiming the Cup every time but twice (DET 1995, VAN 2011). Amazingly, only once have the top seeded teams in each conference met in the Stanley Cup Final (2001).
At the other end of the spectrum, Cinderellas seeded 6th or worse have found themselves in the Stanley Cup Final nine times (VAN 1994, BUF 1999, ANA 2003, CGY 2004, EDM 2006, PHI 2010, NJD 2012, LAK 2012, LAK 2014). Only two have won (LAK 2012, LAK 2014) and only once has a Stanley Cup Final been an all-cinderella affair (2012) when the 8th seeded Kings defeating the 6th seeded Devils to become the first 8th seeded team to win a major North American professional sports championship.
It's worth noting that 6th to 8th seeded teams in the salary cap era are not quite the underdog they once were as playoffs clubs are more closely aligned in terms of regular season performance than ever before.
The chart below describes the regular season point differential for all playoff qualifiers and Stanley Cup finalists since 1994 by year.
Year | Playoff Differential | Cup Final Differential | |
2015 |
16pts (113 - 97)
|
6pts (108 - 102)^
|
|
2014 |
26pts (117 - 91)
|
4pts (100 - 96)
|
|
2013* |
22pts (77 - 55)
|
15pts (77 - 62)
|
|
2012 |
19pts (111 - 92)
|
7pts (102 - 95)^
|
|
2011 |
24pts (117 - 93)
|
14pts (117 - 103)^
|
|
2010 |
33pts (121 - 88)
|
24pts (112 - 88)
|
|
2009 |
26pts (117 - 91)
|
13pts (112 - 99)^
|
|
2008 |
24pts (115 - 91)
|
13pts (115 - 102)
|
|
2007 |
21pts (113 - 92)
|
5pts (110 - 105)
|
|
2006 |
32pts (124 - 92)
|
17pts (112 - 95)
|
|
2004 |
18pts (109 - 91)
|
12pts (106 - 94)
|
|
2003 |
30pts (113 - 83)
|
13pts (108 - 95)
|
|
2002 |
29pts (116 - 87)
|
25pts (116 - 91)
|
|
2001 |
30pts (118 - 88)
|
7pts (118 - 111)
|
|
2000 |
29pts (114 - 85)
|
1pt (103 - 102)
|
|
1999 |
36pts (114 - 78)
|
23pts (114 - 91)
|
|
1998 |
31pts (109 - 78)
|
11pts (103 - 92)
|
|
1997 |
30pts (107 - 77)
|
9pts (103 - 94)^
|
|
1996 |
53pts (131 - 78)
|
12pts (104 - 92)
|
|
1995* |
28pts (70 - 42)
|
18pts (70 - 52)^
|
|
1994 |
30pts (112 - 82)
|
27pts (112 - 85)
|
|
Avg |
28pts
|
13pts
|
* Abbreviated 48 game regular season due to lockout
^ Team with fewer regular season points won series
The chart shows that regular season point differentials between playoff qualifiers is narrowing. During the 82 game seasons from 1994 until the 2004 Lockout, 7 of 10 had at least a 30 point gap, compared to only 2 of the past 9 such seasons since. The largest spread during this span is 53 points (1996) and the smallest 16 points (2015), with a 21 season average of a 28 point differential. Interestingly, the last time there was a spread of less than 16 points was in 1965 when just four teams qualified for the postseason.
Similarly, the regular season point differential between Stanley Cup finalists is closing. Since 1994, only six Finals have boasted teams with a regular season point differential of 7 points or less, with three of those instances occurring over the past four years. The largest gap over the past 21 seasons is 27 points (1994) and the smallest is 1 point (2000), with an average of 13 points. Only 6 times during this span has a finalist with fewer regular season points than its opponent won the Cup (NJD 1995, DET 1997, PIT 2009, BOS 2011, LAK 2012, CHI 2015).
Cinderella teams tell an inspiring story but statistics show that clubs seeded 6th through 8th rarely qualify for the Final (9 of 42, 21% chance to qualify) and almost never go home a winner (2/42, 5% chance to win). That said, the narrowing regular season point differential between playoff qualifiers and Stanley Cup Final pairings could soon see more cinderella winners.
In short, unless you're the Devils, Penguins or unprecedented Kings, your best bet to win the Cup in the modern era comes with clinching your division (15 of 21 winners), earning more regular season points than your fellow finalist (15 of 21 winners), leading your conference (7 of 21 winners) and taking the Presidents' Trophy (6 of 21 winners).
That way, you'll have history on your side.
* See also NHL Playoff First Round Upsets.
* See also Presidents' Winners & Defending Cup Champions.
* See also NHL Presidents' Trophy Winners & Playoff Success.
Posted by MG at 12:03 AM 0 comments
Labels: Playoffs, Projections, Rules, Standings, Statistical Anomaly
Thursday, April 30, 2015
NHL Stanley Cup Playoff First Round Upsets
If you think 7th and 8th seeded wildcard teams teams don't have a fighting chance against the 1st and 2nd seeded division winners in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, you'd be wrong. The mighty NHL underdog is no stranger to serving up early round upsets.
Since the introduction of the conference playoff format in 1994, opening round upsets have been ubiquitous with 30 of the 84 such 1st vs. 8th and 2nd vs. 7th series being won by lower seeds. That's a better than 1 in 3 chance (36%) of underdog success at the expense of division winners.
Despite abandoning the conference playoff format in favor of a divisional playoff format for the 2014 postseason, top finishers remain paired with the weakest qualifiers in the opening round, with the top division winner in each conference playing the weakest wildcard (i.e., 1st vs. 8th) and the other division winner playing the remaining wildcard (i.e., 2nd vs. 7th).
The chart below shows series records by year for 1st vs. 8th and 2nd vs. 7th opening round matchups, with annual and cumulative totals.
Year | 1st vs. 8th | 2nd vs. 7th | Total |
1994 |
1-1
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
1995 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
1996 |
2-0
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
1997 |
2-0
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
1998 |
1-1
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
1999 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2000 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2001 |
2-0
|
0-2
|
2-2
|
2002 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2003 |
2-0
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2004 |
2-0
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2006 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2007 |
2-0
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2008 |
2-0
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2009 |
1-1
|
2-0
|
3-1
|
2010 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2011 |
2-0
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2012 |
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2013 |
2-0
|
0-2
|
2-2
|
2014 |
2-0
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2015 |
2-0
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
Total |
32-10
|
22-20
|
54-30
|
In 11 of the past 21 postseasons both top seeded teams prevailed, including 4 in the past 5 years. The remaining 10 series saw a split. Never have both top seeded teams been eliminated in the opening round. Put another way, top finishers have a 32-10 record during this span, representing a 76% success rate over their 8th seeded foes.
Presidents' Trophy winners have survived the first round 16 of 21 times (76%) falling only five times during this period (St. Louis 2000, Detroit 2006, San Jose 2009, Washington 2010, Vancouver 2012).
Of the 2nd seeded teams, 5 of 21 times (1996, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011) both won their opening round and 4 of 21 times (1994, 1998, 2001, 2013) each were eliminated. The remaining 12 of 21 postseasons saw a split with a 2nd seeded team advancing in one series and the 7th seed prevailing in the other. In sum, 2nd seeded teams have a 22-20 record during this period, representing a mere 52% margin of success.
In only 4 of the past 21 playoffs (1996, 2007, 2008, 2011) have all four 1st and 2nd seeded teams advanced past the opening round, representing a lowly 19% chance of collective success. That said, never before have all four favorites been eliminated in the first round.
More than ever, regular season point differentials between playoff qualifiers is narrowing, blurring the lines between favorites and underdogs. During the 82 game seasons from 1994 until the 2004 Lockout, 7 of 10 had at least a 30 point gap, compared to only 2 of the past 9 such seasons since. The largest spread during this span is 53 points (1996) and the smallest 16 points (2015), with a 21 season average of a 28 point differential. The last time there was a spread of less than 16 points was in 1965 when just four teams qualified for the postseason.
In short, the conference's best usually survive but others are exposed. But that could be changing in the NHL's modern age of postseason parity. Stay tuned.
* See also NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-0.
* See also NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-1.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Game 7 History.
* See also NHL Playoff Seeding and Stanley Cup Wins.
* See also Presidents' Winners & Defending Cup Champions.
Posted by MG at 12:02 AM 0 comments
Labels: Music, Playoffs, Projections, Standings, Statistical Anomaly, Video Clip
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
2013 NHL Playoff Projections - 82 Games Played
When it comes to the NHL playoffs, a general rule of thumb is to expect the unexpected. While division winners typically hoist the Stanley Cup, top-seeded teams are no stranger to first round playoff upsets.
Acknowledging that the best predictor of future behavior is typically past performance, the chart below tracks teams over the second half of the 2013 NHL regular season examining their records over the final 10 and 20 games to measure where momentum lies heading into the postseason.
Team Performance Heading Into 2013 NHL Playoffs | ||||||||||
EAST | ||||||||||
Final | 10 GP | 20 GP | ||||||||
Team | W | Pts | W | Pts | W | Pts | ||||
1. PIT | 36 | 72 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 32 | ||||
2. MTL | 29 | 63 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 21 | ||||
3. WAS | 27 | 57 | 8 | 17 | 15 | 32 | ||||
4. BOS | 28 | 62 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 21 | ||||
5. TOR | 26 | 57 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 26 | ||||
6. NYR | 26 | 56 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 26 | ||||
7. OTT | 25 | 56 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 22 | ||||
8. NYI | 24 | 55 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 26 | ||||
WEST | ||||||||||
Final | 10 GP | 20 GP | ||||||||
Team | W | Pts | W | Pts | W | Pts | ||||
1. CHI | 36 | 77 | 7 | 15 | 13 | 28 | ||||
2. ANA | 30 | 66 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 20 | ||||
3. VAN | 26 | 59 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 27 | ||||
4. STL | 29 | 60 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 26 | ||||
5. LAK | 27 | 59 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 25 | ||||
6. SJS | 25 | 57 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 27 | ||||
7. DET | 24 | 56 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 25 | ||||
8. MIN | 26 | 55 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 21 |
In the East, Pittsburgh and Washington led all others over the final 20 and 10 game measures with the Penguins earning an extra win and the Capitals picking up an extra point. Boston and Montreal trailed their playoff conference peers at each interval, registering the same number of points but with the Canadiens besting the Bruins by two wins.
In terms of streaks, Detroit finished with four straight wins while Montreal and the New York Rangers won their final two, leading their respective conferences in the category. The New York Islanders dropped their last three games owning the coldest finish, though three others (Boston, San Jose, Vancouver) lost their last two.
In short, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit are hot heading into the playoffs while Montreal, Boston and Minnesota are not. Of course, none of these statistical measures matter when puck drops tonight. It's a new dawn. It's a new day. It's a new life.
Let the second season begin. The real season. 16W.
Posted by MG at 12:04 AM 0 comments
Labels: Music, Playoffs, Projections, Standings, Statistical Anomaly, Video Clip