blank'/> THE PUCK REPORT: April 2011

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 82 Games Played

A general rule of thumb for the NHL playoffs is to expect the unexpected. Though division winners typically win the Stanley Cup, top seeded teams are no stranger to first round playoff upsets.

Appreciating that the best predictor of future behavior is typically past performance, the chart below tracks teams over the second half of the 2011 NHL regular season examining their 10, 20 and 41 game records to measure where momentum lies heading into this postseason.

Team Performance Heading Into 2011 NHL Playoffs

Final10 GP20 GP41 GP
1. WAS4810771516332555
2. PHI47106397202149
3. BOS4610361310242452
4. PIT4910681613282351
5. TBL461037149222250
6. MTL449651112252249
7. BUF439681713292555
8. NYR449361312252144

Final10 GP20 GP41 GP
1. VAN5411771415302757
2. SJS4810571513292758
3. DET471044109222147
4. ANA479971415302755
5. NAS449971513292249
6. PHO439951210242452
7. LAK469861211242351
8. CHI449751111252352

San Jose, Vancouver and Anaheim bested the West with 27 wins from the season's midpoint with Nashville keeping pace with the threesome over the final 10 games. Interestingly, Detroit was the weakest team at each interval over the second half of the regular season.

In the East, Washington led over the final 41 and 20 game stretch, with Pittsburgh and Buffalo dominating during the last 10 games. At the other end, New York had the worst second half and Philadelphia posted the fewest points over the final 20 and 10 game periods.

In terms of streaks, Pittsburgh and Buffalo enter the playoffs with four straight wins and Los Angeles lost the final two games of the season.

To sum up, Vancouver, San Jose, Anaheim, Nashville, Washington, Buffalo and Pittsburgh are all hot heading into the playoffs while Philadelphia and Detroit are not. Of course, none of these statistics matter when the puck drops tonight on the 2011 NHL playoffs.

Let the second season begin.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

2011 NHL Draft Lottery Results

Moments ago the 2011 NHL Draft lottery was conducted in New York City with the top pick being awarded to the Edmonton Oilers for the second consecutive year.

Designed to guard against gaming regular season results to improve draft position, the weighted lottery system implemented prior to the 1995 Draft offers weaker teams a greater chance of a higher pick while allowing a team to advance up to four spots and fall only one.

Though all non-playoff teams participate, only the league's five worst are eligible for the first pick with the last place club enjoying a 48.2% likelihood of the loot. For the 4th straight year, 5th time in 6, and 9th of the last 16 lotteries, the team with the greatest percentage chance of collecting the top pick did just that.

For the first time in three years, however, draft selections will not track regular season final standings with the New Jersey Devils winning the lottery jumping four spots from 8th to 4th, pushing 4th to 7th worst finishers back one spot. The final draft selection order along with each team's likelihood of winning the lottery are listed below.

1. EDM : 25.0%
2. COL: 18.8%
3. FLA: 14.2%
4. NJD: 3.6%
5. NYI: 10.7%
6. OTT: 8.1%
7. ATL: 6.2%
8. CLB: 4.7%
9. BOS: 2.7% (from Toronto)
10. MIN: 2.1%
11. COL: 1.5% (from St. Louis)
12. CAR: 1.1%
13. CGY: 0.8%
14. DAL: 0.5%

Remaining slots are set after the playoffs with the Stanley Cup winner and runner-up picking 30th and 29th respectively, and conference finalists, division winners, and wildcards teams positioned according to the relative strength of their regular season record among their subgroup.

* See also 2018 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2017 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2016 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2015 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2014 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2013 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2010 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2009 NHL Draft Lottery Results.