Monday, January 10, 2011

2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 41 Games Played

With half of the 2011 NHL regular season games played, playoff projections predicated on midpoint performance are presented below.














Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture At 41 Games
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. PHI
26
57
1.39
1. VAN
27
60
1.46
2. PIT
26
55
1.34
2. DET
26
57
1.39
3. TBL
24
53
1.29
3. DAL
24
52
1.27
4. WAS
23
52
1.27
4. NAS
22
50
1.22
5. BOS
22
51
1.24
5. LAK
23
47
1.15
6. NYR
23
49
1.20
6. MIN
21
47
1.15
7. MTL
22
47
1.15
7. SJS
21
47
1.15
8. ATL
20
46
1.12
8. COL
21
47
1.15
9. CAR
20
46
1.12
9. PHO
19
47
1.15
10. BUF
18
41
1.00
10. STL
20
46
1.12
11. FLA
19
40
0.98
11. CHI
21
45
1.10
12. TOR
17
38
0.93
12. ANA
20
44
1.07
13. OTT
16
38
0.93
13. CLB
20
43
1.05
14. NYI
13
33
0.80
14. CGY
18
39
0.95
15. NJD
10
22
0.54
15. EDM
13
33
0.80


Though anything may seem possible with 41 games to play, history tells us otherwise. Of those poised for the playoffs at last year's midpoint, only two from the East (NYR, ATL) and one from the West (CGY) missed at season's end. Put another way, 13 of 16 teams maintained their standing with only 3 of 14 outliers reversing their fortune (MTL, PHI, DET).

The chart below shows the points and pace required for current outliers to qualify based on projected cutoffs (East 92Pts, West 94Pts).








Points Needed In Final 41 Games

EAST

WEST
Team
Pts
Pace
Team
Pts
Pace
9. CAR
46
1.12
9. PHO
47
1.15
10. BUF
51
1.24
10. STL
48
1.17
11. FLA
52
1.27
11. CHI
49
1.20
12. TOR
54
1.32
12. ANA
50
1.22
13. OTT
54
1.32
13. CLB
51
1.24
14. NYI
59
1.44
14. CGY
55
1.34
15. NJD
70
1.71
15. EDM
61
1.49

Last year no team with a first half points pace of less than 1.00 made the cut suggesting that several (FLA, CGY, TOR, OTT, NYI, EDM, NJD) have already squandered their second season. But hey, don't write yourself off yet. Just try your best, try everything you can.
Stranger things have happened in the middle of the ride.