Wednesday, January 6, 2010

2010 NHL Playoff Projections - 41 Games Played

With half of the NHL regular season in the books, playoff projections predicated on midpoint performance are presented below.














Projected 2010 NHL Playoff Picture At 41 Games
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. NJD
30
61
1.49
1. CHI
28
59
1.44
2. BUF
26
56
1.36
2. SJS
27
59
1.44
3. WAS
24
54
1.32
3. PHO
25
53
1.29
4. PIT
26
53
1.29
4. CGY
24
53
1.29
5. BOS
21
49
1.19
5. COL
23
52
1.27
6. OTT
21
46
1.12
6. VAN
25
51
1.24
7. NYR
19
43
1.05
7. NAS
24
51
1.24
8. ATL
18
42
1.02
8. LAK
24
51
1.24
9. TBL
16
42
1.02
9. DET
21
48
1.17
10. MTL
19
41
1.00
10. DAL
18
47
1.15
11. PHI
19
41
1.00
11. MIN
20
43
1.05
12. NYI
17
39
0.95
12. STL
17
40
0.97
13. FLA
16
39
0.95
13. ANA
16
39
0.95
14. TOR
13
37
0.90
14. CLB
15
38
0.93
15. CAR
11
29
0.71
15. EDM
16
36
0.89


Since 2005, the playoff threshold has hovered around 41 wins and 94 points for each conference. Extrapolating mid-season standings for '09-'10, however, teams will need to best this in the West (48W, 102Pts) though may settle for historically less out East (36W, 84Pts).


The chart below reflects the points and pace needed for the postseason by the bottom seven should present patterns hold for the second half.








Points Needed In Final 41 Games

EAST

WEST
Team
Pts
Pace
Team
Pts
Pace
9. TBL
42
1.02
9. DET
54
1.32
10. MTL
43
1.05
10. DAL
55
1.34
11. PHI
43
1.05
11. MIN
59
1.44
12. NYI
45
1.10
12. STL
62
1.51
13. FLA
45
1.10
13. ANA
63
1.54
14. TOR
47
1.15
14. CLB
64
1.56
15. CAR
55
1.34
15. EDM
66
1.61


Amazingly five out West (MIN, STL, ANA, CLB, EDM) must meet or beat the first half pace of the conference leaders (SJS, CHI). The weaker East, on the other hand, offers teams more opportunity to overcome their slow start, though Carolina must best Washington's front 41 to qualify.


Will the West maintain it's aggressive point pace? Is the East as soft as they seem? Stay tuned. For now, this is where it's at.

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