2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 82 Games Played

A general rule of thumb for the NHL playoffs is to expect the unexpected. Though division winners typically win the Stanley Cup, top seeded teams are no stranger to first round playoff upsets.

Appreciating that the best predictor of future behavior is typically past performance, the chart below tracks teams over the second half of the 2011 NHL regular season examining their 10, 20 and 41 game records to measure where momentum lies heading into this postseason.

Team Performance Heading Into 2011 NHL Playoffs
EAST
	Final			10 GP		20 GP			41 GP
Team	W	Pts		W	Pts	W	Pts		W	Pts
1. WAS	48	107		7	15	16	33		25	55
2. PHI	47	106		3	9	7	20		21	49
3. BOS	46	103		6	13	10	24		24	52
4. PIT	49	106		8	16	13	28		23	51
5. TBL	46	103		7	14	9	22		22	50
6. MTL	44	96		5	11	12	25		22	49
7. BUF	43	96		8	17	13	29		25	55
8. NYR	44	93		6	13	12	25		21	44
WEST
	Final		10 GP			20 GP		41 GP
Team	W	Pts	W		Pts	W	Pts	W		Pts
1. VAN	54	117	7		14	15	30	27		57
2. SJS	48	105	7		15	13	29	27		58
3. DET	47	104	4		10	9	22	21		47
4. ANA	47	99	7		14	15	30	27		55
5. NAS	44	99	7		15	13	29	22		49
6. PHO	43	99	5		12	10	24	24		52
7. LAK	46	98	6		12	11	24	23		51
8. CHI	44	97	5		11	11	25	23		52

San Jose, Vancouver and Anaheim bested the West with 27 wins from the season's midpoint with Nashville keeping pace with the threesome over the final 10 games. Interestingly, Detroit was the weakest team at each interval over the second half of the regular season.

In the East, Washington led over the final 41 and 20 game stretch, with Pittsburgh and Buffalo dominating during the last 10 games. At the other end, New York had the worst second half and Philadelphia posted the fewest points over the final 20 and 10 game periods.

In terms of streaks, Pittsburgh and Buffalo enter the playoffs with four straight wins and Los Angeles lost the final two games of the season.

To sum up, Vancouver, San Jose, Anaheim, Nashville, Washington, Buffalo and Pittsburgh are all hot heading into the playoffs while Philadelphia and Detroit are not. Of course, none of these statistics matter when the puck drops tonight on the 2011 NHL playoffs.

Let the second season begin.

2011 NHL Draft Lottery Results

Moments ago the 2011 NHL Draft lottery was conducted in New York City with the top pick being awarded to the Edmonton Oilers for the second consecutive year.

Designed to guard against gaming regular season results to improve draft position, the weighted lottery system implemented prior to the 1995 Draft offers weaker teams a greater chance of a higher pick while allowing a team to advance up to four spots and fall only one.

Though all non-playoff teams participate, only the league's five worst are eligible for the first pick with the last place club enjoying a 48.2% likelihood of the loot. For the 4th straight year, 5th time in 6, and 9th of the last 16 lotteries, the team with the greatest percentage chance of collecting the top pick did just that.

For the first time in three years, however, draft selections will not track regular season final standings with the New Jersey Devils winning the lottery jumping four spots from 8th to 4th, pushing 4th to 7th worst finishers back one spot. The final draft selection order along with each team's likelihood of winning the lottery are listed below.

1. EDM : 25.0%
2. COL: 18.8%
3. FLA: 14.2%
4. NJD: 3.6%
5. NYI: 10.7%
6. OTT: 8.1%
7. ATL: 6.2%
8. CLB: 4.7%
9. BOS: 2.7% (from Toronto)
10. MIN: 2.1%
11. COL: 1.5% (from St. Louis)
12. CAR: 1.1%
13. CGY: 0.8%
14. DAL: 0.5%

Remaining slots are set after the playoffs with the Stanley Cup winner and runner-up picking 30th and 29th respectively, and conference finalists, division winners, and wildcards teams positioned according to the relative strength of their regular season record among their subgroup.

* See also 2018 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2017 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2016 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2015 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2014 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2013 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2010 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2009 NHL Draft Lottery Results.

2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 10 Games To Play

With 72 games banked and 10 to play, the NHL playoff picture is all but set. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 72 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PHI	44	97	1.35	1. VAN	47	103	1.43
2. WAS	41	92	1.27	2. DET	43	94	1.30
3. BOS	40	90	1.25	3. SJS	41	90	1.25
4. PIT	41	90	1.25	4. PHO	38	87	1.21
5. TBL	39	89	1.24	5. LAK	40	86	1.19
6. MTL	39	85	1.18	6. CHI	39	86	1.19
7. NYR	38	80	1.11	7. ANA	40	85	1.18
8. BUF	35	79	1.10	8. DAL	38	85	1.18
9. CAR	33	76	1.05	9. NAS	37	84	1.17
10. NJD	34	72	1.00	10. CGY	36	81	1.12
11. TOR	31	72	1.00	11. MIN	35	78	1.08
12. ATL	30	72	1.00	12. CLB	33	76	1.05
13. FLA	29	68	0.94	13. STL	32	73	1.01
14. NYI	27	66	0.92	14. COL	28	64	0.89
15. OTT	27	63	0.87	15. EDM	23	56	0.78

If teams maintain their 72 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 90 (East) and 97 (West), a two point uptick from last year's 88 and 95. Substituting the 72 game pace for that of the past 10 games yields the same participants albeit with some variations in seeding, as shown below.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 10 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. WAS	50	110	1.34	1. VAN	55	119	1.45
2. PHI	48	108	1.32	2. DET	48	106	1.29
3. BOS	44	101	1.23	3. SJS	47	104	1.27
4. PIT	46	102	1.24	4. ANA	48	101	1.23
5. MTL	46	99	1.21	5. CHI	45	101	1.23
6. TBL	41	96	1.17	6. LAK	45	98	1.19
7. NYR	44	92	1.12	7. PHO	43	98	1.19
8. BUF	40	91	1.11	8. DAL	43	98	1.19
9. NJD	41	86	1.05	9. NAS	43	98	1.19
10. CAR	37	85	1.04	10. CGY	43	92	1.12
11. ATL	35	83	1.01	11. MIN	37	86	1.05
12. TOR	35	82	1.00	12. CLB	35	83	1.01
13. NYI	31	78	0.95	13. STL	36	81	0.99
14. FLA	32	77	0.94	14. COL	30	69	0.84
15. OTT	33	75	0.91	15. EDM	26	64	0.78

The 10 game pace projections have Washington overtaking Philadelphia for the East's top spot while Montreal and Tampa Bay swap 5th and 6th seeds. In the West, 4th through 7th finishers are shuffled with Anaheim stealing home ice from Phoenix, leaving four teams tied with 98 points and putting the new NHL tiebreaker system to the test.

Sadly, New Jersey's miraculous second half run appears to have missed the mark. Now a Buffalo or New York collapse must accompany their pursuit of uninterrupted wins to end the regular season.

Long have you run.

2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 20 Games To Play

With 62 games banked and 20 to play, the NHL playoff picture is taking shape. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 62 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PHI	40	86	1.39	1. VAN	39	87	1.40
2. TBL	37	81	1.31	2. DET	38	82	1.32
3. BOS	36	79	1.27	3. SJS	35	76	1.22
4. PIT	36	78	1.26	4. PHO	33	75	1.21
5. WAS	32	74	1.19	5. LAK	35	74	1.19
6. MTL	32	71	1.14	6. MIN	33	72	1.16
7. NYR	32	68	1.10	7. CHI	33	72	1.16
8. BUF	30	67	1.08	8. DAL	33	72	1.16
9. CAR	29	67	1.08	9. NAS	31	70	1.13
10. TOR	27	62	1.00	10. CGY	31	70	1.13
11. ATL	25	61	0.98	11. ANA	32	69	1.11
12. FLA	26	59	0.95	12. CLB	31	69	1.11
13. NJD	27	58	0.93	13. STL	28	65	1.05
14. NYI	23	54	0.87	14. COL	26	59	0.95
15. OTT	21	51	0.82	15. EDM	20	48	0.77

If teams maintain their 62 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 89 (East) and 95 (West), nearly identical to last year's 88 and 95. An uptick in production, however, is needed for outliers to salvage their season.

Points Needed In Final 20 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. CAR	22	1.10	9. NAS	25	1.25
10. TOR	27	1.35	10. CGY	25	1.25
11. ATL	28	1.40	11. ANA	26	1.30
12. FLA	30	1.50	12. CLB	26	1.30
13. NJD	31	1.55	13. STL	30	1.50
14. NYI	35	1.75	14. COL	36	1.80
15. OTT	38	1.90	15. EDM	47	2.35

While most have enjoyed relatively consistent production throughout the season, some have deviated drastically during the past 21 games. Most notably, the New Jersey Devils posted a 0.54 pace during the front 41, a marker they've more than tripled during the 21 games since.

Points Collected In Past 21 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
NJD	36	1.71	CGY	31	1.48
PHI	29	1.38	SJS	29	1.38
TBL	28	1.33	PHO	28	1.33
BOS	27	1.28	VAN	27	1.28
BUF	26	1.24	LAK	27	1.28
MTL	24	1.14	CHI	27	1.28
TOR	24	1.14	CLB	26	1.24
PIT	23	1.09	DET	25	1.19
CAR	22	1.05	ANA	25	1.19
WAS	22	1.05	MIN	25	1.19
NYI	21	1.00	DAL	20	0.95
NYR	19	0.90	NAS	20	0.95
FLA	19	0.90	STL	19	0.90
ATL	15	0.71	EDM	15	0.71
OTT	13	0.62	COL	12	0.57

Understanding that past behavior is a strong indicator of future performance, the question is how far back do we look to predict the future. The chart below posits final standings extrapolating the points pace for the past 21 games over the remainder of the regular season.
- ------

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 21 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PHI	53	114	1.38	1. VAN	50	113	1.28
2. TBL	49	108	1.33	2. DET	49	106	1.19
3. BOS	49	105	1.28	3. SJS	48	104	1.38
4. PIT	45	100	1.09	4. PHO	46	102	1.33
5. WAS	40	95	1.04	5. LAK	46	100	1.28
6. MTL	41	94	1.14	6. CGY	43	100	1.48
7. NJD	43	92	1.71	7. CHI	44	98	1.28
8. BUF	39	92	1.24	8. MIN	43	96	1.19
9. CAR	37	88	1.05	9. CLB	41	94	1.24
10. NYR	40	86	1.00	10. ANA	43	93	1.19
11. TOR	36	85	1.14	11. DAL	41	91	0.95
12. FLA	32	77	0.90	12. NAS	39	89	0.95
13. ATL	29	75	0.71	13. STL	36	83	0.90
14. NYI	32	74	0.90	14. COL	30	70	0.71
15. OTT	25	63	0.62	15. EDM	26	62	0.57

Interestingly, the two measures yield identical placements for the top five on each side. The 21 game pace, however, has the New Jersey Devils beating out the New York Rangers and the Calgary Flames displacing the Dallas Stars. Time will tell which pace prevails over the final 20 games.