blank'/> THE PUCK REPORT: NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-1

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-1

Eight teams took a 3-1 series lead in their best-of-seven series in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Seven teams advanced (Carolina [2], Florida, Toronto, Vegas [3]) and one went home (Boston). While a 3-1 lead is always a good thing, it's never a sure thing.

Through 2023, teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series 333 times. Only 32 times has the trailing team comeback to win the series. Put another way, the team with a 3-1 series lead wins 90% of the time with the down-and-nearly-out team recovering only 10% of the time.

The chart below describes all 32 comebacks by year, team and round.

Year       Matchup Round
1942   Toronto over Detroit   Final 
1975 New York* over Pittsburgh   Preliminary
1987 New York* over Washington Preliminary

Detroit over Toronto Quarterfinal
1988 Washington over Philadelphia Quarterfinal
1989 Los Angeles over Edmonton Preliminary
1990 Edmonton over Winnipeg Preliminary
1991 St. Louis over Detroit Preliminary
1992 Detroit over Minnesota^ Preliminary

Vancouver over Winnipeg Preliminary

Pittsburgh over Washington Preliminary
1994 Vancouver over Calgary Preliminary
1995 Pittsburgh over Washington Preliminary
1998 Edmonton over Colorado Preliminary
1999 St. Louis over Phoenix Preliminary
2000 New Jersey over Philadelphia Semifinal
2003 Minnesota^^ over Colorado  Preliminary

Vancouver over St. Louis Preliminary

Minnesota^^ over Vancouver  Quarterfinal
2004 Montreal over Boston    Preliminary
2009 Washington over New York**      Preliminary
2010 Montreal over Washington Preliminary

Philadelphia over Boston Quarterfinal
2011 Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh Preliminary
2013 Chicago over Detroit Quarterfinal
2014 Los Angeles over San Jose Preliminary

New York** over Pittsburgh Quarterfinal
2015 New York** over Washington Quarterfinal
2019 San Jose over Vegas Preliminary
2021 Montreal over Toronto Preliminary
2022 New York** over Pittsburgh Preliminary
2023 Florida over Boston Preliminary

*   New York Islanders
** New York Rangers
^   Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild

In the 36 seasons since all playoff rounds were expanded to best-of-seven series in 1987, 30 teams have comeback from a 3-1 deficit to win their series. In the 18 postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, however, only 12 teams (Washington 2009, Montreal 2010, Philadelphia 2010, Tampa Bay 2011, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014New York 2014, New York 2015, San Jose 2019, Montreal 2021, New York 2022, Florida 2023) have turned the trick. Breaking it down by round, such comebacks have happened only once in the Stanley Cup Final (Toronto 1942) and Semifinal (New Jersey 2000), and 7 times in the Quarterfinal (Detroit 1987, Washington 1988, Minnesota 2003, Philadelphia 2010, Chicago 2013, New York 2014, New York 2015), with the remaining 23 comebacks occurring during the Preliminary round.

Of the 32 teams that completed the comeback, six won the Stanley Cup (Toronto 1942, Edmonton 1990, Pittsburgh 1992New Jersey 2000, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014) and five more made it to the Final but failed to hoist the hardware (Vancouver 1994, Philadelphia 2010, New York 2014, Montreal 2021, Florida 2023).


Only one team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit twice in the same playoff (Minnesota 2003). Similarly, only one team has ever comeback down 3-1 and blown a 3-1 lead in the same postseason (Vancouver 2003).

The chart below lists all teams involved in such 3-1 series comebacks, showing the total number of series involving such circumstances and their overall win/loss record.

Team       Series      Record
Washington     
7     
2-5
Pittsburgh
6     
2-4
Detroit
5     
2-3
New York**
4     
3-1
Vancouver
4     
3-1
Montreal
3     
3-0
Edmonton
3     
2-1
St. Louis
3     
2-1
Philadelphia     
3     
1-2
Toronto     
3     
1-2
Boston
3     
0-3
Los Angeles
2     
2-0
Minnesota^^
2     
2-0
New York*
2     
2-0
San Jose
2     
1-1
Colorado
2     
0-2
Winnipeg
2     
0-2
Chicago
1     
1-0
Florida
1     
1-0
New Jersey
1     
1-0
Tampa Bay
1     
1-0
Arizona
1     
0-1
Calgary
1     
0-1
Minnesota^
1     
0-1
Vegas
1     
0-1

*   New York Islanders
** New York Rangers

^   Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild

Only AnaheimBuffalo, Carolina, Columbus, DallasNashville, Ottawa, Seattle and Winnipeg (formerly the Atlanta Thrashers) have never comeback from a 3-1 series deficit or blown a 3-1 series lead. Montreal, Vancouver and the New York Rangers lead all teams in comebacks trailing a series 3-1 with three series wins.  Conversely, Washington has blown more 3-1 series leads than any other team, squandering five such series.

It's worth noting that in the 18 postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, 16 teams have squandered a 3-1 series lead only to stave off elimination by winning Game 7. They are Carolina (2006, 2009), Vancouver (2007, 2011), Montreal (2008), Philadelphia (2008), San Jose (2011), Boston (2013, 2018), Los Angeles (2014), St. Louis (2016), Pittsburgh (2017), Dallas (2020), New York Islanders (2020) and Vegas (2020, 2021). Eight of these games were decided by one goal and six in overtime.
In sum, with a 10% chance of recovery for teams trailing their series 3-1, it's statistically likely their season will soon end.

* See also NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-0.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Game 7 History.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff First Round Upsets.

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