blank'/> THE PUCK REPORT: April 2010

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

2010 NHL Draft Lottery Results

Moments ago the 2010 NHL Draft lottery was conducted in New York City with the top pick being awarded to the Edmonton Oilers, representing a franchise first.

Designed to guard against gaming regular season results to improve draft position, the weighted lottery system implemented prior to the 1995 Draft offers weaker teams a greater chance of a higher pick while allowing a team to advance up to four spots and fall only one.

Though all non-playoff teams participate, only the league's five worst are eligible for the first pick with the last place club enjoying a 48.2% likelihood of the loot. For the 3rd straight year, 4th time in 5, and 8th of the last 15 lotteries, the team with the greatest percentage chance of collecting the top pick did just that. In fact, for the second consecutive year no team advanced or receded in the draw.

1. EDM : 25.0%
2. BOS: 18.8% (from Toronto)
3. FLA: 14.2%
4. CLB: 10.7%
5. NYI: 8.1%
6. TBL: 6.2%
7. CAR: 4.7%
8. ATL: 3.6%
9. MIN: 2.7%
10. NYR: 2.1%
11. DAL: 1.5%
12. ANA: 1.1%
13. PHO: 0.8% (from Calgary)
14. STL: 0.5%

Remaining slots are set after the playoffs with the Stanley Cup winner and runner-up picking 30th and 29th respectively, and conference finalists, division winners, and wildcards teams positioned according to the relative strength of their regular season record among their subgroup.

* See also 2018 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2017 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2016 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2015 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2014 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2013 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2011 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2009 NHL Draft Lottery Results.

2010 NHL Playoff Projections - 82 Games Played

A general rule of thumb for the NHL playoffs is expect the unexpected. While a division winner typically wins the Stanley Cup, top seeded teams are no stranger to first round playoff upsets.

Knowing that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, the chart below tracks team performance over the second half of the 2010 regular season as well as that of the final 20 games and final 10 games to measure where momentum lies heading into the postseason.

Team Performance Heading Into 2010 Playoffs


Final10 Games20 Games41 Games
1. WAS5412161513313067
2. NJD4810351310241842
3. BUF4510051012251944
4. PIT4710151110252148
5. OTT44947159202348
6. BOS399161311241842
7. PHI4188498192247
8. MTL39883910242047


Final10 Games20 Games41 Games
1. SJ5111381711242454
2. CHI5211261311252453
3. VAN4910351111252452
4. PHO5010751213282554
5. DET4410281715322354
6. LA461014118212250
7. NAS4710061313272349
8. COL4395388192043

Since the season's midpoint, Washington holds the best record (30W, 67pts), with Detroit leading the league over the final 20 games (15W, 32pts), and sharing top honors with San Jose over the final 10 games (8W, 17pts). Best records for each period are shown above in green.

At the other end, New Jersey and Boston posted the worst second half of all playoff bound teams (18W, 42pts), with Philadelphia and Colorado setting the slowest pace in final 20 games (8W, 19pts), and Colorado owning the worst record in the final 10 games (3W, 8pts). Worst records during each stretch appear in red.

In terms of streaks, Boston, Detroit, and San Jose each finished with three consecutive wins whereas Colorado and Montreal lost the same.

In sum, San Jose and Detroit are the hottest teams heading into the playoffs with Colorado and Montreal being the coldest. Tomorrow, however, the speculation ends and the 2010 NHL playoffs begin.

Like Marvin said, let's get it on.