2013 NHL Playoff Projections - 82 Games Played

When it comes to the NHL playoffs, a general rule of thumb is to expect the unexpected. While division winners typically hoist the Stanley Cup, top-seeded teams are no stranger to first round playoff upsets.

Acknowledging that the best predictor of future behavior is typically past performance, the chart below tracks teams over the second half of the 2013 NHL regular season examining their records over the final 10 and 20 games to measure where momentum lies heading into the postseason.

Team Performance Heading Into 2013 NHL Playoffs
EAST
	Final			10 GP		20 GP
Team	W	Pts		W	Pts	W	Pts
1. PIT	36	72		8	16	16	32
2. MTL	29	63		4	8	10	21
3. WAS	27	57		8	17	15	32
4. BOS	28	62		3	8	9	21
5. TOR	26	57		5	11	11	26
6. NYR	26	56		7	14	12	26
7. OTT	25	56		6	12	11	22
8. NYI	24	55		6	15	11	26
WEST
	Final		10 GP			20 GP
Team	W	Pts	W		Pts	W	Pts
1. CHI	36	77	7		15	13	28
2. ANA	30	66	5		11	9	20
3. VAN	26	59	5		11	13	27
4. STL	29	60	7		14	13	26
5. LAK	27	59	5		12	11	25
6. SJS	25	57	5		10	13	27
7. DET	24	56	5		13	11	25
8. MIN	26	55	4		9	10	21

Chicago, Vancouver, San Jose and St. Louis bested the West amassing 13 wins each during the final 20 games, with Chicago and St. Louis finishing strongest over the final 10 games with seven wins a piece.  Minnesota endured the poorest finish of any playoff bound team in the conference trailing its peers for both the final 20 and 10 game stretches.

In the East, Pittsburgh and Washington led all others over the final 20 and 10 game measures with the Penguins earning an extra win and the Capitals picking up an extra point.  Boston and Montreal trailed their playoff conference peers at each interval, registering the same number of points but with the Canadiens besting the Bruins by two wins.

In terms of streaks, Detroit finished with four straight wins while Montreal and the New York Rangers won their final two, leading their respective conferences in the category. The New York Islanders dropped their last three games owning the coldest finish, though three others (Boston, San Jose, Vancouver) lost their last two.

In short, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit are hot heading into the playoffs while Montreal, Boston and Minnesota are not. Of course, none of these statistical measures matter when puck drops tonight. It's a new dawn. It's a new day. It's a new life.

Let the second season begin. The real season. 16W.

2013 NHL Draft Lottery Results

Tonight Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly presented the NHL Draft lottery results on TSN, with the top overall pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, to be held on June 30, 2013 in Newark, being awarded to the Colorado Avalanche.
The actual lottery was conducted 30 minutes earlier at NHL Headquarters in New York City, with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman presiding and offering this detailed explanation of the process.
Designed to guard against teams purposely losing regular season games to improve their draft position, the weighted lottery system implemented prior to the 1995 NHL Entry Draft provides weaker teams with a greater chance of a higher pick without any guarantees for poor performance.

Until 2013, only the league's five worst regular season teams were eligible for the top overall pick, allowing teams to advance up to four spots and fall only one spot in the lottery. That changed this year with all non-playoff teams eligible for the top overall pick albeit with their statistical likelihood directly tied to their final regular season standing. The most a team can fall in this year's lottery position is one spot.

For the second year in a row, the top pick went to someone other than the statistical favorite with the last place Florida Panthers edged out by the lottery winning Avalanche. The win gives Colorado their first top overall pick in franchise history - fourth top overall pick if you count their prior incarnation as the pre-lottery Quebec Nordiques (1989 Mats Sundin, 1990 Owen Nolan, 1991 Eric Lindros) - and snaps the Edmonton Oilers three year lottery win streak yielding three top overall picks (2010 Taylor Hall, 2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 2012 Nail Yakupov).

Other than Florida and Colorado trading places, the remaining clubs placed as predicted by their statistical probabilities set forth below.

1. COL: 18.8%
2. FLA: 25.0%
3. TBL: 14.2%
4. NAS: 10.7%
5. CAR: 8.1%
6. CGY: 6.2%
7. EDM: 4.7%
8. BUF: 3.6%
9. NJD: 2.7%
10. DAL: 2.1%
11. PHI: 1.5%
12. PHO: 1.1%
13. WPG: 0.8%
14. CLB: 0.5%

Remaining NHL Entry Draft positions are set after the playoffs with the Stanley Cup champion and runner-up picking 30th and 29th, respectively. Conference finalists (28th, 27th) as well as division winners and wildcard teams (26th through 15th) are then ordered among their respective subgroup based on regular season standings, positioning teams with better regular season records to pick later than their peers.

* See also 2018 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2017 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2016 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2015 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2014 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2012 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2011 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2010 NHL Draft Lottery Results.
* See also 2009 NHL Draft Lottery Results.

2013 NHL Playoff Projections - 10 Games To Play

With 38 games banked and 10 to play, the NHL playoff picture is all but set. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.

Projected 2013 NHL Playoff Picture: 38 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PIT	28	56	1.47	1. CHI	29	62	1.63
2. MTL	25	55	1.45	2. ANA	25	55	1.45
3. WAS	19	40	1.05	3. VAN	21	48	1.26
4. BOS	25	54	1.42	4. LAK	22	47	1.24
5. TOR	21	46	1.21	5. SJS	20	47	1.24
6. OTT	19	44	1.21	6. MIN	22	46	1.21
7. NYR	19	42	1.16	7. STL	22	46	1.21
8. NYI	18	40	1.05	8. DET	19	43	1.13
9. NJD	15	39	1.03	9. PHO	17	40	1.05
10. WPG	18	38	1.00	10. DAL	18	39	1.03
11. PHI	17	37	0.97	11. EDM	16	39	1.03
12. BUF	15	36	0.95	12. CLB	16	39	1.03
13. CAR	16	34	0.89	13. NAS	15	38	1.00
14. TBL	16	34	0.89	14. CGY	14	32	0.84
15. FLA	12	30	0.79	15. COL	12	29	0.76

If teams maintain their 38 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 50 (East) and 54 (West), respectively.  The shortened season has kept playoff races tight, with eight teams (New Jersey, Winnipeg, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Phoenix, Dallas, Edmonton, Columbus) sitting within 4 points of a postseason slot with only 10 games to play. Don't be fooled by their proximity to the playoffs, however, as neither the 38 game pace nor 10 game pace suggests any of these eight will be skating past April 27th.

Projected 2013 NHL Playoff Picture: 10 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PIT	36	72	1.50	1. CHI	35	75	1.56
2. BOS	33	71	1.48	2. VAN	29	64	1.33
3. WAS	26	55	1.14	3. ANA	29	64	1.33
4. MTL	31	68	1.42	4. SJS	28	64	1.33
5. TOR	27	61	1.27	5. LAK	28	60	1.25
6. NYR	24	54	1.12	6. STL	28	58	1.21
7. OTT	24	54	1.12	7. MIN	28	58	1.21
8. NYI	23	51	1.06	8. DET	25	55	1.14
9. PHI	22	49	1.02	9. CLB	22	52	1.08
10. BUF	20	48	1.00	10. EDM	21	50	1.04
11. NJD	17	46	0.96	11. PHO	21	50	1.04
12. WPG	21	44	0.92	12. DAL	23	49	1.02
13. TBL	20	43	0.96	13. NAS	19	48	1.00
14. FLA	17	40	0.83	14. CGY	17	38	0.79
15. CAR	17	36	0.75	15. COL	14	34	0.71

Both the 38 game pace and the 10 game pace projections yield the same playoff participants in each conference. In the West, Vancouver, San Jose and St. Louis each jump a spot in the final standings if the 10 game pace prevails displacing Anaheim, Los Angeles and Minnesota, respectively.  In the East, Boston edges Montreal for the Northeast Division title, and New York leapfrogs Ottawa.  Toronto appears poised to snap their league-leading playoff drought of 7 seasons, a list Edmonton will top if they miss again this spring for the 6th consecutive season.

For 16 teams the real season begins April 30th.  The remaining 14 clubs will have five long months to reflect on what could have been.

2013 NHL Playoff Projections - 20 Games To Play

With 28 games banked in this lockout-shortened season and only 20 to play, the NHL playoff picture is taking shape. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.

Projected 2013 NHL Playoff Picture: 28 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. MTL	19	42	1.50	1. CHI	23	49	1.75
2. PIT	20	40	1.43	2. ANA	21	46	1.64
3. CAR	15	32	1.14	3. MIN	16	34	1.21
4. BOS	19	41	1.46	4. LAK	16	34	1.21
5. OTT	14	34	1.21	5. STL	16	34	1.21
6. WPG	15	32	1.14	6. VAN	13	32	1.14
7. NJD	13	32	1.14	7. DET	13	31	1.11
8. TOR	15	31	1.11	8. PHO	13	30	1.07
9. NYR	14	30	1.07	9. SJS	12	30	1.07
10. NYI	13	29	1.03	10. DAL	13	29	1.03
11. TBL	12	25	0.89	11. NAS	11	28	1.00
12. WAS	12	25	0.89	12. EDM	11	28	1.00
13. PHI	12	25	0.89	13. CGY	11	26	0.93
14. BUF	10	24	0.86	14. CLB	10	26	0.93
15. FLA	7	20	0.80	15. COL	10	24	0.86

If teams maintain their 28 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 53 (East) and 51 (West), with the East threshold being higher than that of the West for the first time in four years. An uptick in production, however, is needed for outliers to salvage their season.

Points Needed In Final 20 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. NYR	23	1.15	9. SJS	21	1.05
10. NYI	24	1.20	10. DAL	22	1.10
11. TBL	28	1.40	11. NAS	23	1.15
12. WAS	28	1.40	12. EDM	23	1.15
13. PHI	28	1.40	13. CGY	25	1.25
14. BUF	29	1.45	14. CLB	25	1.25
15. FLA	33	1.65	15. COL	27	1.35

While most have enjoyed relatively consistent production thus far this season, some have deviated drastically during the past 10 games. Most notably Columbus and Winnipeg have seen a significant uptick in their points per game pace of +.47 and +.36, respectively. On the other hand, Boston and Vancouver have fallen further than any other team over the past 10 games collecting -.36 and -.34 fewer points per game, respectively, than during the first half of the season.

Points Collected In Past 10 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
MTL	16	1.60	CHI	16	1.60
PIT	16	1.60	ANA	14	1.40
WPG	15	1.50	MIN	14	1.40
CAR	13	1.30	CLB	14	1.40
OTT	12	1.20	STL	12	1.20
NYR	12	1.20	LAK	12	1.20
NYI	12	1.20	DET	12	1.20
BOS	11	1.10	PHO	11	1.10
BUF	11	1.10	DAL	10	1.00
WAS	10	1.00	SJS	9	0.90
TOR	9	0.90	VAN	8	0.80
NJD	8	0.80	EDM	8	0.80
PHI	8	0.80	CGY	8	0.80
TBL	6	0.60	NAS	7	0.70
FLA	6	0.60	COL	7	0.70

Understanding past behavior is a strong indicator of future performance, the question is how far back does one look to prepare predictions. The chart below posits final standings extrapolating the points pace for the past 10 games over the remainder of the regular season.

Projected 2013 NHL Playoff Picture: 10 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. MTL	33	74	1.54	1. CHI	39	81	1.69
2. PIT	36	72	1.50	2. ANA	35	74	1.54
3. WPG	29	62	1.29	3. MIN	30	62	1.29
4. BOS	29	63	1.31	4. LAK	28	58	1.21
5. CAR	27	58	1.21	5. STL	28	58	1.21
6. OTT	22	58	1.21	6. DET	23	55	1.14
7. NYR	26	54	1.12	7. CLB	20	54	1.12
8. NYI	23	53	1.10	8. PHO	23	52	1.08
9. TOR	23	49	1.02	9. DAL	21	49	1.02
10. NJD	19	48	1.00	10. VAN	19	48	1.00
11. BUF	18	46	0.96	11. SJS	18	48	1.00
12. WAS	22	45	0.94	12. EDM	19	44	0.92
13. PHI	20	41	0.85	13. NAS	17	42	0.87
14. TBL	18	37	0.77	14. CGY	19	42	0.87
15. FLA	11	32	0.67	15. COL	16	38	0.79

In the East, the 28 game points pace the Devils and Leafs edge the Rangers and Islanders, however, the 10 game points pace flips this equation with the Rangers and Islanders displacing the Devils and Leafs. In the West, the only difference in terms of playoff qualification involves the Canucks and Blue Jackets, the former qualifying applying the 28 game pace and the latter stealing a spot using the 10 game pace. In short, it's getting real in the playoff points race. Time will tell which teams and pace prevail during the final 20 game postseason push.